NBA 2010: Real Predictions & Excuses for Making Wrong Ones (Part II)

THE BOSTON CELTICS will make it back one last time. We talk about Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and Paul Pierce as a bunch of old guys hanging out with the young’uns for one last pick-up game. The problem is, they’re not really that old. Ok, Ray Allen is about to turn 34, which in basketball years is getting up there, but KG is only 33 … wait… and Pierce is about to turn 32… alright you got me, they’re old for the NBA. But they can still play. Hey, Kobe Bryant is about to turn 31 and Derek Fisher is about to turn 35, and if you haven't heard, they just won the title. It may sound unimportant, but an overlooked aspect of the Celtics game is the free throw shooting of Ray Allen. He’s a CAREER 89.3% from the line. Last season (post and regular) he shot 95%. In January, he broke a Celtic record of 72 consecutive free throws. He also had several other streaks of 50 or more in the same season. If the officiating from last year's playoffs is indicative of a new trend, making free throws will be a major part of advancing in years to come. The excuse I have for the Celtics lie in the same reason they didn’t get there this year: can they stay healthy? With a fully functional KG, Celtics lose to the Lakers in 5 games this year, but they still beat Orlando and Cleveland and make it to the Finals. They’ll be the Eastern Conference Champs next year all things considered.

THE ORLANDO MAGIC is probably the least likely of the big three in the east to make it to the dance. Even though Magic Owner Rich DeVos has stated that they’ll go over the salary cap to keep Hedo Turkoglu, we’re all still going to have to wait to see what happens. If the front office follows through, the declaration will have been the defining moment when Orlando joined the big boys. Even though he practically gets away with murder, Hedo Turkoglu is the cornerstone of the Magic. Sorry Dwight Howard, but he is. I’m big on defense and Howard is the best inside defender there is, but the Magic quickly defined themselves as a scrappy team this post-season, and Turkoglu is the scrappiest of the scrappy. The front office knows it and all Magic fans should accept it. In the Laker only loss in the series, Hedo was a big part of the Magic’s first Finals win in franchise history. He had 18 points and 7 assists (most of them to Dwight Howard), and even though Howard had 21 points, he only had 2 blocks. In comparison to game four’s 9 blocks which set a finals record, two is pretty measly. Oh, and did I mention they lost game 4? Turkoglu makes things happen for the Magic. They’ve got to get him back if they want to have a chance. The only thing that will hinder them is a healthy Boston and odd coaching decisions concerning guard play. Getting to the Finals was really neato for them, and like I always say, “no neato without Hedo.”

*Wildcard

*THE CLEVELAND LEBRONS, oh sorry, I mean CAVALIERS. The Cavaliers a wildcard? Hold on, they had the best record in the NBA this last year! Yes, they had a great record in the much weaker east. Judging who gets home court advantage in the Finals by comparing the records in two completely lopsided conferences is almost as bad as giving it to the winner of the All-Star Game. Using John Hollinger’s ranking (which I agree is systematically flawed), the Atlanta Hawks were the East’s 4th best team in comparable to the West’s 4th, San Antonio. The east has three of the top four teams yes, but the next 8 in the listing are not even close, arguably giving the west 9 out of the top 12. If Lebron isn’t on the Cleveland Cavaliers, they’re not even a PLAYOFF TEAM. With Lebron, they make it to the Eastern Conference Finals where they’re outmatched by Dwight Howard in the paint. Here’s where the “wildcard” comes into play, in February of this last year, there was a proposed trade with the Phoenix Suns that never really took wings. Yep, you guessed it, it’s for Shaq. The old switcheroo would have been Shaq for the declining defensive specialist Ben Wallace and the 4.6 PPG Sasha Pavlovic. Some say Shaq is done, but he had a great last season with nearly 18 PPG, plus he’s still 325lbs at 7’1”. If Shaq goes to the Cavs, they now have the inside presence they need to contend with the likes of Boston and Orlando, having a much better shot to make it further in the playoffs. Lebron is phenomenal and won a much deserved MVP this year, but as we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals, he can’t do it alone.

NBA Finals 2010: Real Predictions and Excuses for Making Wrong Ones. (Part I)

As a forewarning, go grab a pen and paper. Write down the date, where you are standing, and what’s going on in your life right now so you can tell your grandchildren where you were when you read this blog, because this is going to be epic. The NBA Draft is this Thursday. If what we all expect the first pick happens, Blake Griffin will be going to the Los Angeles Clippers. Here it is kids, the prediction… … is the anticipation killing you? … Clippers & Bucks in the NBA FINALS! Ha ha, I’m SO funny right? A joke about bad teams. I should be making a joke about bad bloggers, but what would I know about that right?

Real Prediction:
NBA Finals 2010. Lakers vs. Celtics. Lakers win 62 games in the regular season and have home court advantage over Boston in the finals. Lakers win the 2010 Finals at Staples in Game 6. Parade down Figueroa. Looting in the streets. Police cars vandalized. Cats & dogs living together. Mass hysteria.

Real Excuses:
First real excuse: There is of course no real way to know what’s going to happen. For the record, this next section will be me covering my bases and pointing out problems with the teams I expect to make it, and reasons why the teams I don't expect to make it might get there. All aboard the Excuse Train!

Second real excuse: I started writing out the reasons why the favored teams might not make it to the finals, and I realized there is way too much to say about everyone. So I’m making it a two-part whine festival. Check back tomorrow for the cheese and the East. Here’s the West.

THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS were and still are the most talented team in the NBA, proven so by the fancy trophy and new banner hanging up in Staples Center. This makes it pretty hard to point out flaws, but there are some. One in particular: HEART. They finally got around to having some in the last two games against Denver and the Finals, but they constantly rely on their talent during the regular season and occasionally during the post, which is really dangerous. They did it last year against Boston and got walloped in game 6. They did it this year in Game 1, 4, and 6 against Houston. The Lakers can score a lot of points, but someone else besides Kobe Bryant, Trevor Ariza, and Derek Fisher needs to get some attitude on the other side of the court. Which brings me to my next point; there are also some pretty big questions as to who will be back. The big talk now is whether or not the Buss family can afford (or will choose to blow out the windows on the luxury tax) to bring back both Lamar Odom AND Trevor Ariza. In my opinion, if you can only keep one, you’ve got to bring back Ariza (keep your eye out for a later post from me on this issue). Shannon Brown, the new rising star may also not be there. All of these are reasons the Lakers may not make it back, but if they stay healthy, keep everyone, and make the decision that one ring just isn’t enough, they’ll be back.

THE DENVER NUGGETS started to cement themselves as the number 2 team in the west this last season. Will they stay there? It’s possible. Will they stay there for the next 5 years? Not likely. If the Nuggets play with the intensity they had this year, they’re pretty much a shoe in to make it through the first round next May. For a while they’ve been the “Bizarro” Lakers. In the past, their star in Carmello Anthony hasn’t had the “do whatever it takes,” attitude while the rest of his team will fight and claw for every inch, taking Allen Iverson out of the equation of course. Without a doubt in my mind, the Iverson/Billups trade was the best trade of the ‘08-‘09 season. That team needed a leader, and Billups gives them that veteran influence. The understandably nick-named “Thuggets,” play a rough brand of ball that got them all the way to the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers should be writing them a "Thank You Card," because the Nuggets bigs certainly toughened up the Lakers inside players. If Denver continues to play to their strengths, which is their actual physical strength, they’ve got a decent shot to make it back to the Conference Finals. What we have to remember though, is that in the west, it’s the Lakers and everyone else.

THE HOUSTON ROCKETS looked a lot better against the Lakers than they should have. Minus Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, they play a much more rag tag game which created the perfect storm for the Lakers. Houston would probably be better off benching Yao and McGrady if they get to a 7 game series with LA next year. Well, maybe not Yao. It’s hard to bench a guy who’s 7’6” who shoots 86% from the charity stripe. Oh yeah, Aaron Brooks is really fast.

THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS has the best collection of players past their prime. Duncan will go down as one of the all-time greats, but the Spurs era is over. Who knows though, maybe they’ve got one more in them.

EVERYONE ELSE. Portand, New Orleans, Dallas, and Utah. Nope, nope, nope, and nope. Although all are great. Just not quite in the top tier yet. Although Portland seems to give the Lakers problems… in February. I also like the Jazz, but that may be because I played high school basketball with Ronnie Brewer.

Check back tomorrow for the East.